First preference: getting it straight

In several places, I've emphasised the fact that Labor seats reported as "safest" due to the high two party preferred result against the Liberals are actually closer to being taken by the Greens. I've done this mainly it is often overlooked in an unhelpful tendency to make everything one-dimensional and it find it interesting just in being unusual.

As it turns out, Sam Byrne's campaign material has this plastered all over it - "It's between the Greens and Labor". I must admit that while it may add legitimacy to their perceptions, I doubt that it's an effective way to campaign, particular combined with the rest of their comments.

Still, at least it makes more sense that Anthony Albanese's complaints about them. Whatever they suggest regarding preferences, they're making it very clear that they're not looking for a "protest vote". There might be more to say when you put it in the national context, but I don't see anything misleading said about this particular contest.

Then there's the (inconspicuous) Liberal candidate, who also seems to protest a bit much. Even though he may well have other outcomes foremost in his mind, suggesting preferences for the Greens ahead of Labor is exactly the same as saying (truthfully or otherwise - not that I think there's a deal here) that you'd rather the result go that way. Not that that in itself should matter to a potential voter. In fact, let's completely avoid the Alan Jones response to how-to-vote cards and point out that whatever you think of the parties, candidates, and electoral and parliamentary machinations, there's no reason not to choose your own ordering.

Candidates in the news

I've commented before on the transition of inner-city seats like Marrickville from safe Labor to a new sort of marginal seat, where the alternative is the Greens. It is a sign of just how complete this transition is that the Greens preselection was a story in the ABC radio news bulletins this morning.

Deputy Mayor Fiona Byrne will now challenge Deputy Premier (and former Deputy Mayor) Carmel Tebbutt for the second time in the state election next March. Together with the preselection of the 2003 state candidate (and former Deputy Mayor) as the Greens candidate for Grayndler, this means that while the sitting members in the state and federal seats are married to each other, the Greens candidates share a surname.

However, the media interest probably has more to do with the other preselection candidate, Sylvia Hale, a member of the Legislative Council since 2003, and known to the voters of Marrickville long before that (although I don't remember that she was ever Deputy Mayor). The SMH reports the vote as Greens reject Hale for Marrickville. Her past may have come into it, but I don't know whether she has received an official reason for her “rejection”.

Turning green?

I'm not sure I should really read over people's shoulders on the train, but in doing so, I discovered that the Daily Telegraph is reporting that the state Labor Party is worried. Worried that any Labor seats with a margin of less than 15% are "under threat". That's a lot of seats. But I'm interested in the Tele's inclusion of the traditionally safe seat of the deputy premier - Marrickville (and the neighbouring Balmain). Their two party-preferred margins are low because the Greens have become the second party, and aren't quite the same as the other seats mentioned. Are they more or less "under threat" than the seats held by similar margins over the Libs/Nats?